In 2015, the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) announced the establishment of its Khorasan Province, said to encompass “Afghanistan, Pakistan, and other nearby lands.” Soon after, ISIL proclaimed its Caucasus Province. However, the war in Syria and Iraq is going badly for ISIL. Losing ground in its heartland, ISIL fighters will have […]
By late 2005, Sweden suddenly faced what it perceived as a hard security threat, in the unexpected form of a Russian pipeline project across the Baltic Sea which, it was suspected, could be used as a sensor platform for Russian military intelligence. The pipeline would be ideally located for use as a tripwire sensor chain […]
Few topics are more susceptible to heated public debate than the risks associated with the energy sector and energy security. Public debate on energy issues is often made yet more convoluted by the fact that political scientists from government and think-tanks not only have a different outlook and employ different analytical methods than industry analysts, […]
Few topics are more susceptible to heated public debate than the risks associated with the energy sector and energy security. Public debate on energy issues is often made yet more convoluted by the fact that political scientists from government and think-tanks not only have a different outlook and employ different analytical methods than industry analysts, […]
First study to properly treat a key regional grouping in Asia. Explores both security and energy issues across the region. Considers geopolitical obstacles to the SCO’s long-term viability. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) has developed into a key regional security group in Asia, its member states representing no less than “half of humanity”. Alarmists believe […]
The two-decade-long reign of President Nursultan Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan has witnessed remarkable achievements. Where there at first was no real country, only a vast expanse inhabited by a majority of Slavic settlers, a minority of native Kazakhs (no more than 20% according to the 1959 census) and a large population of disparate nationalities exiled there […]
Globalization has brought new vulnerabilities and opportunities in Eurasia’s energy sector. The effects of globalization particularly concern Russia’s energy relationships with Europe, Central Asia, and China. In the transition from the command economy of the Soviet period to the market economy of the present, the Russian energy industry gradually changed its strategy. Central Asia is […]
1. China, India, and Thailand all need Burma’s energy reserves, in particular natural gas but also oil and hydroelectric power. 2. China also needs to transit Middle Eastern oil and natural gas through Burma. 3. Thailand already depends on Burmese energy for 20 per cent of its electric power demand. 4. Since Burma needs revenues, […]
1. Since independence, Ukraine’s dependence on cheap natural gas, either from Russia or at least transited through Russia, in combination with Russia’s need to export natural gas to western Europe, has consistently caused disturbances in the relations between the two countries. 2. Russia depends on Ukraine, for the transiting of natural gas primarily aimed for […]
1. Central Asia is beginning to see a genuine move away from barter deals towards commercial deals in accordance with market forces. 2. Contrary to much perceived wisdom, in Central Asia it is Gazprom, Russia’s natural gas export monopoly, that is leading the way in the movement towards market forces. 3. Central Asian natural gas […]
Russia remains the key guarantor of security in Central Asia, but the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), of which Russia and China are the leading members, may have the potential eventually to assume this role. However, a number of serious issues will hamper continued cooperation. First, there is a lack of common values among the SCO member states. In […]
Putin and Energy Policy Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, has never made a secret of his views on energy security, and the policy documents issued by the Kremlin for obvious reasons correspond to his views. Most important among these documents is the Russian energy strategy, approved on 23 May 2003 and confirmed by the Russian government […]
The energy needs of the world are growing fast, and competition for energy is on the rise. Not only hydrocarbon (crude oil and natural gas) resources are at stake, but also the means of electricity production and indeed most other sources of energy. China and India may both need to double their oil requirements in […]
