In 2015, the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) announced the establishment of its Khorasan Province, said to encompass “Afghanistan, Pakistan, and other nearby lands.” Soon after, ISIL proclaimed its Caucasus Province. However, the war in Syria and Iraq is going badly for ISIL. Losing ground in its heartland, ISIL fighters will have […]
Turkmenistan
SPECIAL REPORT, CENTRAL ASIAN SECURITY CHALLENGES: 2012 AND BEYOND
Afghanistan plays a pivotal role in Central Asia’s regional instability due to its weak central government, poor economy, and ethnically diverse population. Although Afghanistan contains important natural resources, the country still faces a number of problems, each of which has the potential to destroy the Afghan government after the pull-out of international military forces. Central […]
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization and Eurasian Geopolitics
First study to properly treat a key regional grouping in Asia. Explores both security and energy issues across the region. Considers geopolitical obstacles to the SCO’s long-term viability. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) has developed into a key regional security group in Asia, its member states representing no less than “half of humanity”. Alarmists believe […]
NATURAL-GAS TRADE BETWEEN RUSSIA, TURKMENISTAN, AND UKRAINE: AGREEMENTS AND DISPUTES
1. Since independence, Ukraine’s dependence on cheap natural gas, either from Russia or at least transited through Russia, in combination with Russia’s need to export natural gas to western Europe, has consistently caused disturbances in the relations between the two countries. 2. Russia depends on Ukraine, for the transiting of natural gas primarily aimed for […]
THE WORLD OF CENTRAL ASIAN OIL AND GAS: POWER POLITICS, MARKET FORCES, AND STEALTH PIPELINES
1. Central Asia is beginning to see a genuine move away from barter deals towards commercial deals in accordance with market forces. 2. Contrary to much perceived wisdom, in Central Asia it is Gazprom, Russia’s natural gas export monopoly, that is leading the way in the movement towards market forces. 3. Central Asian natural gas […]
ISLAM AND MODERNITY IN CONTEMPORARY CENTRAL ASIA – RELIGIOUS FAITH VERSUS WAY OF LIFE: A STORY OF FOUR RADICAL DISRUPTIONS
What Makes Central Asian Islam Central Asian? In March 2005, an Afghan deputy minister of the interior (who out of mercy will remain unnamed) was touring Europe. At one stop, he suddenly found himself faced with a question that obviously took him by surprise. How long, an innocent but assuredly well-meaning European asked, had Afghanistan […]
ISLAMIC EXTREMISM AS A POLITICAL FORCE: A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF CENTRAL ASIAN ISLAMIC EXTREMIST MOVEMENTS
Islam in Central Asia does not constitute a uniform religious, social, or political force. While all titular Central Asian ethnic groups, i.e., the nations that states were named after, eventually embraced Islam, the religion did not penetrate the traditional cultures and social systems of these groups to an equal extent. While the sedentary groups generally […]
RUSSIA AND CENTRAL ASIAN SECURITY
Russia remains the key guarantor of security in Central Asia, despite often heard claims that the United States has assumed this position. However, Russia regards Central Asia as of far less priority than her relations with the United States, Europe, and China. By the end of the Soviet era, Central Asia was considered an economic […]
THE PROSPECTS FOR INTERNAL UNREST IN TURKMENISTAN
Stalin’s Disneyland? The widely publicised attempt on Turkmenistani President Saparmurat Niyazov’s life on 25 November 2002, and the subsequent arrest in the capital Ashgabat of an exiled, leading opponent to the Niyazov regime, dispelled the notion that any rumours of attempted palace coups against the Turkmenistani government were exaggerated. Although the facts of the affair […]
ISLAMIC EXTREMISM AS A POLITICAL FORCE IN CENTRAL ASIA
Islam in Central Asia does not constitute a uniform religious, social, or political force. While all titular Central Asian ethnic groups, i.e., the nations that states were named after, eventually embraced Islam, the religion did not penetrate the traditional cultures and social systems of these groups to an equally encompassing extent. While sedentary groups generally […]
AFGHANISTAN AND CENTRAL ASIAN SECURITY
A Great Game with New Rules Central Asia is no longer the contested territory in a great geopolitical game fought among great powers. Few borders are seriously contested, unlike the situation in the Middle East and the Indian Subcontinent. Despite regional problems involving the exploitation of water resources, inter-ethnic distrust, economic reform, and the development […]