Hybrid threats embody a mixture of violent, coercive and non-violent means in order to enable state and non-state actors to achieve their ends. The concept of hybrid threats has in recent years become an integral part of the security and national security policies adopted by the European Union (EU), North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and […]
China
The Army of the Manchu Empire – The Conquest Army and the Imperial Army of Qing China, 1600-1727
This book describes and analyses the Manchu, or Qing, army in all its aspects. The emphasis lays on the Qing army in the seventeenth and early eighteenth century, because this is the time when the Manchu military system developed its own characteristics and reached maturity. Furthermore, having achieved this and in the process conquered one […]
THE RISE AND FALL OF NOMAD MILITARY POWER, PART 2: c. 1200 AD – c. 1600 AD
In Part 2 Michael Fredholm von Essen looks at the circumstances that led Temuchin to change Nomad strategy and create the greatest land empire in history. He then examines the causes of the downfall of nomad military superiority, of which gunpowder was the chieftest. Get Full text VERSION 1 in PDF Get Full text VERSION […]
THE RISE AND FALL OF NOMAD MILITARY POWER, PART 1: c. 1000 BC – 1200 AD
The Threat to Energy Infrastructure in the Central Eurasia from Terrorist Groups Affiliated to ISIL
In 2015, the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) announced the establishment of its Khorasan Province, said to encompass “Afghanistan, Pakistan, and other nearby lands.” Soon after, ISIL proclaimed its Caucasus Province. However, the war in Syria and Iraq is going badly for ISIL. Losing ground in its heartland, ISIL fighters will have […]
STRATEGIES OF ENERGY AND SECURITY IN CONTEMPORARY EURASIA
Few topics are more susceptible to heated public debate than the risks associated with the energy sector and energy security. Public debate on energy issues is often made yet more convoluted by the fact that political scientists from government and think-tanks not only have a different outlook and employ different analytical methods than industry analysts, […]
UNDERSTANDING CHINA’S POLICY AND INTENTIONS TOWARDS THE SCO
Among the world’s great powers, China is one of those which arguably are most difficult to assess with regard to ultimate political intentions. The difficulties were voiced by the United States Ambassador to China, Gary Locke, who noted “that there is a concern, a question mark, by people all around the world and governments all […]
STRATEGIES OF ENERGY AND SECURITY IN CONTEMPORARY EURASIA: VULNERABILITIES AND OPPORTUNITIES IN RUSSIA’S ENERGY RELATIONSHIP WITH EUROPE, CENTRAL ASIA, AND CHINA
Few topics are more susceptible to heated public debate than the risks associated with the energy sector and energy security. Public debate on energy issues is often made yet more convoluted by the fact that political scientists from government and think-tanks not only have a different outlook and employ different analytical methods than industry analysts, […]
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization and Eurasian Geopolitics
First study to properly treat a key regional grouping in Asia. Explores both security and energy issues across the region. Considers geopolitical obstacles to the SCO’s long-term viability. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) has developed into a key regional security group in Asia, its member states representing no less than “half of humanity”. Alarmists believe […]
Kazakhstan’s Energy Sector and the Political Legacy of Nursultan Nazarbayev
The two-decade-long reign of President Nursultan Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan has witnessed remarkable achievements. Where there at first was no real country, only a vast expanse inhabited by a majority of Slavic settlers, a minority of native Kazakhs (no more than 20% according to the 1959 census) and a large population of disparate nationalities exiled there […]
GLOBALIZATION AND EURASIA’S ENERGY SECTOR
Globalization has brought new vulnerabilities and opportunities in Eurasia’s energy sector. The effects of globalization particularly concern Russia’s energy relationships with Europe, Central Asia, and China. In the transition from the command economy of the Soviet period to the market economy of the present, the Russian energy industry gradually changed its strategy. Central Asia is […]
HOW NOT TO SURVIVE UNDER SIEGE: THE FALL OF FORT ZEELANDIA, DUTCH FORMOSA, 1661-1662
The dramatic events that caused probably the last genuine Ming Dynasty loyalist, the half-Japanese pirate warlord Coxinga (1624-1662), to take control over the island of Formosa (present Taiwan) two decades after the fall of the dynasty that he served have been described in many books, plays, and even television dramas. This article will accordingly focus […]
FROM THE FERGHANA VALLEY TO WAZIRISTAN AND BEYOND: THE ROLE OF UZBEK ISLAMIC EXTREMISTS IN THE CIVIL WARS OF TAJIKISTAN, AFGHANISTAN, AND PAKISTAN
Uzbek proponents of Islamic extremism have played an important role as foreign participants in the civil wars of Tajikistan and Afghanistan and the present conflict between Pakistani Taliban and security forces in the tribal areas of Pakistan. Their close links to international jihadist networks such as the Al-Qaida and, at times, considerable income from sources […]
BURMESE OIL AND NATURAL GAS: THE RISK FOR SANCTIONS
1. China, India, and Thailand all need Burma’s energy reserves, in particular natural gas but also oil and hydroelectric power. 2. China also needs to transit Middle Eastern oil and natural gas through Burma. 3. Thailand already depends on Burmese energy for 20 per cent of its electric power demand. 4. Since Burma needs revenues, […]
THE WORLD OF CENTRAL ASIAN OIL AND GAS: POWER POLITICS, MARKET FORCES, AND STEALTH PIPELINES
1. Central Asia is beginning to see a genuine move away from barter deals towards commercial deals in accordance with market forces. 2. Contrary to much perceived wisdom, in Central Asia it is Gazprom, Russia’s natural gas export monopoly, that is leading the way in the movement towards market forces. 3. Central Asian natural gas […]
ISLAM AND MODERNITY IN CONTEMPORARY CENTRAL ASIA – RELIGIOUS FAITH VERSUS WAY OF LIFE: A STORY OF FOUR RADICAL DISRUPTIONS
What Makes Central Asian Islam Central Asian? In March 2005, an Afghan deputy minister of the interior (who out of mercy will remain unnamed) was touring Europe. At one stop, he suddenly found himself faced with a question that obviously took him by surprise. How long, an innocent but assuredly well-meaning European asked, had Afghanistan […]
THE IMPACT OF MANCHU INSTITUTIONS ON TIBETAN MILITARY REFORM
Tibet had since at least the eighth century been known for its heavily armoured cavalry. However, the era of the armoured cavalryman ended in Tibet in the mid-seventeenth century following the introduction of firearms from in particular Bhutan. The Tibetan military then underwent a transitional phase from the mid-/late seventeenth to the end of the […]
THE SHANGHAI COOPERATION ORGANIZATION: THE LATEST CHAPTER IN THE HISTORY OF THE GREAT GAME OR THE GUARANTOR OF CENTRAL ASIAN SECURITY?
Russia remains the key guarantor of security in Central Asia, but the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), of which Russia and China are the leading members, may have the potential eventually to assume this role. However, a number of serious issues will hamper continued cooperation. First, there is a lack of common values among the SCO member states. In […]
GAZPROM IN CRISIS: PUTIN’S QUEST FOR STATE PLANNING AND RUSSIA’S GROWING NATURAL GAS DEFICIT
Putin and Energy Policy Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, has never made a secret of his views on energy security, and the policy documents issued by the Kremlin for obvious reasons correspond to his views. Most important among these documents is the Russian energy strategy, approved on 23 May 2003 and confirmed by the Russian government […]
ISLAMIC EXTREMISM AS A POLITICAL FORCE: A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF CENTRAL ASIAN ISLAMIC EXTREMIST MOVEMENTS
Islam in Central Asia does not constitute a uniform religious, social, or political force. While all titular Central Asian ethnic groups, i.e., the nations that states were named after, eventually embraced Islam, the religion did not penetrate the traditional cultures and social systems of these groups to an equal extent. While the sedentary groups generally […]
RUSSIA AND CENTRAL ASIAN SECURITY
Russia remains the key guarantor of security in Central Asia, despite often heard claims that the United States has assumed this position. However, Russia regards Central Asia as of far less priority than her relations with the United States, Europe, and China. By the end of the Soviet era, Central Asia was considered an economic […]
GUNPOWDER AND THE END OF NOMAD MILITARY POWER: THE MILITARY REVOLUTION THAT REALLY MATTERED
Most academics working on the military revolution have focused their attention on Western Europe. This Eurocentric view is perhaps understandable, since many indeed seem to be more interested in the Rise of the West than in purely military affairs elsewhere. However, while the European strategists of the sixteenth to eighteenth centuries, being chiefly concerned with […]
NOMAD EMPIRES & NOMAD GRAND STRATEGY: THE RISE AND FALL OF NOMAD MILITARY POWER, c. 1000 BC – AD 1500
Most history was always written from the perspective of great empires such as Rome, Persia, and China. For them, and their historians, the nomads of the Eurasian steppes were little more than savage troublemakers. Nomads of different tribes and lineages were also hard to distinguish from one another. Few imperial commentators went farther than merely […]
THE RUSSIAN ENERGY STRATEGY & ENERGY POLICY: PIPELINE DIPLOMACY OR MUTUAL DEPENDENCE?
The energy needs of the world are growing fast, and competition for energy is on the rise. Not only hydrocarbon (crude oil and natural gas) resources are at stake, but also the means of electricity production and indeed most other sources of energy. China and India may both need to double their oil requirements in […]
THE GREAT GAME IN INNER ASIA OVER TWO CENTURIES
Around 1800, three great powers faced each other in Inner Asia: Britain, Russia, and the Manchu empire. The West referred to the latter as China, given that China since the seventeenth century formed the economically most important part of the Manchu empire. The Manchus were in decline, but they remained sufficiently strong to control the […]
ISLAMIC EXTREMISM AS A POLITICAL FORCE IN CENTRAL ASIA
Islam in Central Asia does not constitute a uniform religious, social, or political force. While all titular Central Asian ethnic groups, i.e., the nations that states were named after, eventually embraced Islam, the religion did not penetrate the traditional cultures and social systems of these groups to an equally encompassing extent. While sedentary groups generally […]
AFGHANISTAN AND CENTRAL ASIAN SECURITY
A Great Game with New Rules Central Asia is no longer the contested territory in a great geopolitical game fought among great powers. Few borders are seriously contested, unlike the situation in the Middle East and the Indian Subcontinent. Despite regional problems involving the exploitation of water resources, inter-ethnic distrust, economic reform, and the development […]
THE TATMADAW: BURMA’S ARMED FORCES AND PROSPECTS FOR THE FUTURE
Since 1988, Burma has expanded its military from what was in effect a mere counter-insurgency force to what is likely to become the largest military force in South-East Asia. Moreover, a rapid and thorough modernisation process has armed the battle-hardened army with modern weaponry. The air force and navy too have increased their capabilities. For […]
ARMIES AND ENEMIES OF YAMATAI: JAPANESE WARRIORS OF THE YAYOI PERIOD, 300 BC – AD 300
The Yayoi period is sometimes regarded as the Japanese Bronze Age. This is not strictly true, as iron was in widespread use and Japan accordingly never had a true bronze age. However, the Yayoi period succeeded the stone-age Jomon period, and was itself followed by the iron-dominated Kofun period, during which a new potent force […]
IN SEARCH OF THE OPIUM WARLORDS OF THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE: A REPORT FROM THE THAI-BURMESE BORDER
Opium and its modern derivative heroin have for long remained a serious threat against civilisation as we know it, both in the East and in the West. Today, a large share of the available heroin comes from the area known as the Golden Triangle, the vast borderlands between Thailand, Burma, and Laos… Get Full text in […]