In 1975, Lieutenant Commander Valeriy Sablin led his crew in a mutiny on the Soviet warship Storozhevoy. The ship was then located in Riga, Soviet Latvia. Sablin’s avowed intention was to foment a new communist revolution by taking the warship to Leningrad, where he expected to receive the support of the navy and the masses. […]
International Affairs
FROM 9/11, 2001, TO 8/15, 2021: REGIME CHANGE IN AFGHANISTAN
The 9/11 terrorist attacks shaped American politics for decades. In 2021, the Biden Administration’s timetable for withdrawal of military forces from Afghanistan was for domestic political reasons firmly tied to the 20th anniversary of 9/11. The problem was, nobody thought to remind President Joe Biden that the Taliban government also had a 20th anniversary to […]
Soviet Approaches to Muslim Extremism and Terrorism
Svenskt flyg under kalla kriget
Under det kalla kriget hade Sverige ett av världens största flygvapen. Det bestod nästan enbart av svenska stridsflygplan. Bara stormakterna gjorde liknande ansträngningar. Satsningenberörde hela samhället. Överallt i landet fanns flygflottiljer, hemliga vägbaser och förråd, liksom den svenska flygindustrin med mer än tusen underleverantörer – om kriget skulle komma. Men hur såg egentligen den svenska […]
THE POWER OF FEAR. SOVIET INTELLIGENCE, THE POLITBURO, AND THE 1979 THREAT FROM AFGHANISTAN
Hemligstämplat – svensk underrättelsetjänst från Erlander till Bildt
See more – Adlibris Alla de svenska hemligheterna från det kalla kriget. Boken bygger på tidigare hemligstämplade dokument och mycket berättas för första gången. Vad var det egentligen som hände under det kalla kriget och åren därefter? Vad gjorde landets politiska ledning, öppet och i hemlighet? – Hur gick det egentligen till när spionen Stig Wennerström avslöjades, […]
Police Intelligence Collection and National Security Intelligence
Until 1945, police intelligence remained a key source of national intelligence. Of particular importance for counterespionage and counterterrorism, police networks also provided strategic intelligence on countries with which police cooperation took place and, in times of war, facilitated operations on enemy territory. From 1929, for instance, the Cairo Police coordinated a global intelligence network ranging […]
Briefing the Swedish policy maker: the analyst-policy maker relationship in a small country
Policy makers tend to pick and choose among conclusions presented to them. This can result in politicization, which ultimately might result in intelligence being blamed for policy failures. This has a negative impact on intelligence analysis, transforming it in an ever more cautious direction which negates its utility in the policy process. Swedish intelligence learnt […]
How Sweden Chose Sides
In 1946, Sweden had not yet chosen sides in the emerging Cold War. Leading members of the Swedish Social Democrat government, primarily the powerful Foreign Minister Östen Undén, distrusted the Western democracies and regarded the Soviet Union as a viable protector. Swedish intelligence had cooperated with its Western counterparts during the Second World War. After […]
Afghanistan Beyond the Fog of War – Persistent Failure of a Rentier State
This is the first book to scrutinize the root causes of problems today with Afghan reconstruction. It begins in 1880 with the coming to power of Emir Abdur Rahman and departure of an occupying British army. On the northern border, Russian forces were also poised. Determined to preserve Afghan independence, Abdur Rahman devised a nation-building […]
Nanomaterials Technology: Convergence between Nanotechnology and Materials Science and Engineering
This chapter will describe the implications for security forces of the convergence between nanotechnology and materials science and engineering. It will aim to investigate what can be expected in the medium term, until 2025, by examining U.S. and Russian efforts in nanomaterials, with a focus on security forces applications. It will also suggest a few […]
Transnational Organized Crime and Jihadist Terrorism
This book describes and analyzes the convergence of transnational organized crime and jihadist terrorism that has taken place within Russian-speaking social networks in Western Europe. Studies have shown that while under certain circumstances links between criminal organizations and terrorist groups appear, these are usually opportunistic and temporary in nature. Only rarely do they develop into […]
Hybrid Threats, the Gerasimov Doctrine, Nonlinear Warfare – or Indirect and Asymmetric Operations?
Rightly or wrongly, many observers who discuss present national security threats emanating from Russia will refer to the so-called Gerasimov Doctrine as essential reading. The Gerasimov Doctrine, as it is explained in most media reports, purports to be a new Russian military doctrine that combines military, technological, information, diplomatic, economic, cultural, and other tactics, which […]
The Threat to Energy Infrastructure in the Central Eurasia from Terrorist Groups Affiliated to ISIL
In 2015, the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) announced the establishment of its Khorasan Province, said to encompass “Afghanistan, Pakistan, and other nearby lands.” Soon after, ISIL proclaimed its Caucasus Province. However, the war in Syria and Iraq is going badly for ISIL. Losing ground in its heartland, ISIL fighters will have […]
Doku Umarov, Founder of the Caucasus Emirate: From Secularism to Jihadism
Doku Umarov (1964-2013), also known as Dokka Umarov and later Abu Usman, was the founder and leader of the Caucasus Emirate. An ethnic Chechen, he, like many North Caucasian jihadis, experienced an ideological slide from secularism and separatism to jihadism. Umarov personally described how he took up jihad, with the help of a relative, from […]
Description of the analysed security Strategies in Sweden
The concept of hybrid power projection or of hybrid threats is not addressed much in Sweden, one of the reasons being the military planning process. Since hybrid warfare covers effectively everything from conventional warfare to terrorism to organised crime and cyber threats, it is difficult for the armed forces to plan their strength and size […]
Understanding Lone Actor Terrorism
This volume examines the lone actor terrorist phenomenon, including the larger societal trends which may or may not have led to their acts of terrorism. With lone actor terrorism becoming an increasingly common threat, the contributors to this volume aim to answer the following questions: What drives the actions of individuals who become lone actor […]
The Hybrid Threat Capability of the Afghan Taliban Movement, 2001- 2014
When the Afghan Taliban leaders withdrew into Pakistan in late 2001, they had no intention of surrendering the struggle against the U.S.-led international coalition which had forced them out of Afghanistan. Yet, with a substantial international military presence firmly entrenched in Afghanistan, there was no way that the Taliban could regain power by conventional military […]
Power Projection by Pipeline: Russia, Sweden, and the Hybrid Threat from the Nord Stream Project, 2005-2009
By late 2005, Sweden suddenly faced what it perceived as a hard security threat, in the unexpected form of a Russian pipeline project across the Baltic Sea which, it was suspected, could be used as a sensor platform for Russian military intelligence. The pipeline would be ideally located for use as a tripwire sensor chain […]
The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and its Impact on Tajikistan
During the 1992-1997 civil war in Tajikistan, foreign volunteers from primarily Uzbekistan played a prominent role in the fighting on the side of the UTO. Subsequently forming the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), these volunteer jihadists continued fighting and formed a destabilizing factor in Tajikistan’s relationship with neighbouring countries. The IMU in time migrated into […]
UZBEK ISLAMIC EXTREMISTS IN THE CIVIL WARS OF TAJIKISTAN, AFGHANISTAN, AND PAKISTAN: FROM RADICAL ISLAMIC AWAKENING IN THE FERGHANA VALLEY TO TERRORISM WITH ISLAMIC VOCABULARY IN WAZIRISTAN
Michael Fredholm (Stockholm University) analyzes the activities of Uzbek Islamic extremists and finds that, although their Islamic rhetoric has little theological content and is outweighed by their belief in the righteousness of their cause and that salvation can be assured by armed violence in the name of the religious duty of holy war (jihad), they […]
STRATEGIES OF ENERGY AND SECURITY IN CONTEMPORARY EURASIA
Few topics are more susceptible to heated public debate than the risks associated with the energy sector and energy security. Public debate on energy issues is often made yet more convoluted by the fact that political scientists from government and think-tanks not only have a different outlook and employ different analytical methods than industry analysts, […]
UNDERSTANDING CHINA’S POLICY AND INTENTIONS TOWARDS THE SCO
Among the world’s great powers, China is one of those which arguably are most difficult to assess with regard to ultimate political intentions. The difficulties were voiced by the United States Ambassador to China, Gary Locke, who noted “that there is a concern, a question mark, by people all around the world and governments all […]
STRATEGIES OF ENERGY AND SECURITY IN CONTEMPORARY EURASIA: VULNERABILITIES AND OPPORTUNITIES IN RUSSIA’S ENERGY RELATIONSHIP WITH EUROPE, CENTRAL ASIA, AND CHINA
Few topics are more susceptible to heated public debate than the risks associated with the energy sector and energy security. Public debate on energy issues is often made yet more convoluted by the fact that political scientists from government and think-tanks not only have a different outlook and employ different analytical methods than industry analysts, […]
SPECIAL REPORT, CENTRAL ASIAN SECURITY CHALLENGES: 2012 AND BEYOND
Afghanistan plays a pivotal role in Central Asia’s regional instability due to its weak central government, poor economy, and ethnically diverse population. Although Afghanistan contains important natural resources, the country still faces a number of problems, each of which has the potential to destroy the Afghan government after the pull-out of international military forces. Central […]
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization and Eurasian Geopolitics
First study to properly treat a key regional grouping in Asia. Explores both security and energy issues across the region. Considers geopolitical obstacles to the SCO’s long-term viability. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) has developed into a key regional security group in Asia, its member states representing no less than “half of humanity”. Alarmists believe […]
Kazakhstan’s Energy Sector and the Political Legacy of Nursultan Nazarbayev
The two-decade-long reign of President Nursultan Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan has witnessed remarkable achievements. Where there at first was no real country, only a vast expanse inhabited by a majority of Slavic settlers, a minority of native Kazakhs (no more than 20% according to the 1959 census) and a large population of disparate nationalities exiled there […]
GLOBALIZATION AND EURASIA’S ENERGY SECTOR
Globalization has brought new vulnerabilities and opportunities in Eurasia’s energy sector. The effects of globalization particularly concern Russia’s energy relationships with Europe, Central Asia, and China. In the transition from the command economy of the Soviet period to the market economy of the present, the Russian energy industry gradually changed its strategy. Central Asia is […]
THE NEED FOR NEW POLICIES IN AFGHANISTAN – A EUROPEAN’S PERSPECTIVE
A number of counterproductive policies have been attempted in Afghanistan. New policies are needed, and this paper describes proven methods of state-building in Afghanistan. Get Full text in PDF
KASHMIR, AFGHANISTAN, INDIA AND BEYOND: A TAXONOMY OF ISLAMIC EXTREMISM AND TERRORISM IN PAKISTAN
Pakistan has been called the epicentre of terrorism. Since leaders from almost every Sunni Islamic extremist group worldwide, from the internationalist Al-Qaeda to the Afghanistan-centred Taliban, have been found on the Pakistani soil, there seems little reason to argue with the conclusion that Pakistan is indeed central to political violence and terrorism in the name of Sunni Islam. […]
THE LEGACY OF NURSULTAN NAZARBAYEV: WILL THE 2010 OSCE CHAIRMANSHIP MAKE KAZAKHSTANI PRESIDENT NAZARBAYEV GO DOWN IN HISTORY AS REFORMER OR DESPOT?
The twenty-year reign of President Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan has seen his country develop through independence and transition into a haven of social and political stability. At the same time, Nazarbayev has presided over constitutional and political changes that have emasculated most of the political opposition and brought in restrictive media legislation. With Kazakhstan currently holding […]
FROM THE FERGHANA VALLEY TO WAZIRISTAN AND BEYOND: THE ROLE OF UZBEK ISLAMIC EXTREMISTS IN THE CIVIL WARS OF TAJIKISTAN, AFGHANISTAN, AND PAKISTAN
Uzbek proponents of Islamic extremism have played an important role as foreign participants in the civil wars of Tajikistan and Afghanistan and the present conflict between Pakistani Taliban and security forces in the tribal areas of Pakistan. Their close links to international jihadist networks such as the Al-Qaida and, at times, considerable income from sources […]
Central Asian Sunni Islamic Extremism and Its Links to the Gulf
In 1995, Sunni Islamic extremism – of the type usually referred to as Wahhabism – emerged as a disruptive political force in Chechnya. The dynamics of this are well understood. So is the fact that spillover from this conflict has touched the Gulf region, in the form of terrorism as well as unasked-for problems in […]
TURKIETS GEOPOLITISKA BETYDELSE I HISTORISKT PERSPEKTIV
The geopolitical significance of Turkey is analyzed in the perspective of the last decades of the history of Turkey and the region. The paper is in Swedish. Get Full text in PDF
BURMESE OIL AND NATURAL GAS: THE RISK FOR SANCTIONS
1. China, India, and Thailand all need Burma’s energy reserves, in particular natural gas but also oil and hydroelectric power. 2. China also needs to transit Middle Eastern oil and natural gas through Burma. 3. Thailand already depends on Burmese energy for 20 per cent of its electric power demand. 4. Since Burma needs revenues, […]
NATURAL-GAS TRADE BETWEEN RUSSIA, TURKMENISTAN, AND UKRAINE: AGREEMENTS AND DISPUTES
1. Since independence, Ukraine’s dependence on cheap natural gas, either from Russia or at least transited through Russia, in combination with Russia’s need to export natural gas to western Europe, has consistently caused disturbances in the relations between the two countries. 2. Russia depends on Ukraine, for the transiting of natural gas primarily aimed for […]
THE WORLD OF CENTRAL ASIAN OIL AND GAS: POWER POLITICS, MARKET FORCES, AND STEALTH PIPELINES
1. Central Asia is beginning to see a genuine move away from barter deals towards commercial deals in accordance with market forces. 2. Contrary to much perceived wisdom, in Central Asia it is Gazprom, Russia’s natural gas export monopoly, that is leading the way in the movement towards market forces. 3. Central Asian natural gas […]
ISLAM AND MODERNITY IN CONTEMPORARY CENTRAL ASIA – RELIGIOUS FAITH VERSUS WAY OF LIFE: A STORY OF FOUR RADICAL DISRUPTIONS
What Makes Central Asian Islam Central Asian? In March 2005, an Afghan deputy minister of the interior (who out of mercy will remain unnamed) was touring Europe. At one stop, he suddenly found himself faced with a question that obviously took him by surprise. How long, an innocent but assuredly well-meaning European asked, had Afghanistan […]
THE SHANGHAI COOPERATION ORGANIZATION: THE LATEST CHAPTER IN THE HISTORY OF THE GREAT GAME OR THE GUARANTOR OF CENTRAL ASIAN SECURITY?
Russia remains the key guarantor of security in Central Asia, but the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), of which Russia and China are the leading members, may have the potential eventually to assume this role. However, a number of serious issues will hamper continued cooperation. First, there is a lack of common values among the SCO member states. In […]
NORDKAUKASIERNAS VÄG TILL TURKIET, DÅTIDENS “EUROPEISKA UNION”
I dessa dagar, då EU ständigt förefaller ställa nya krav på Turkiet för att landet till sist ska beviljas medlemskap i unionen, kan det vara på sin plats att påminna om den tid då Turkiet, i form av Osmanska riket, var den superstat till vilken förföljda européer kunde fly när det ryska hotet blev alltför påträngande […]
GAZPROM IN CRISIS: PUTIN’S QUEST FOR STATE PLANNING AND RUSSIA’S GROWING NATURAL GAS DEFICIT
Putin and Energy Policy Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, has never made a secret of his views on energy security, and the policy documents issued by the Kremlin for obvious reasons correspond to his views. Most important among these documents is the Russian energy strategy, approved on 23 May 2003 and confirmed by the Russian government […]
ISLAMIC EXTREMISM AS A POLITICAL FORCE: A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF CENTRAL ASIAN ISLAMIC EXTREMIST MOVEMENTS
Islam in Central Asia does not constitute a uniform religious, social, or political force. While all titular Central Asian ethnic groups, i.e., the nations that states were named after, eventually embraced Islam, the religion did not penetrate the traditional cultures and social systems of these groups to an equal extent. While the sedentary groups generally […]
REVOLT AND REPRESSION IN UZBEKISTAN: THE DILEMMA OF WESTERN RESPONSE
The forceful suppression of revolt in Andijan shocked but also alarmed most international observers and seasoned politicians: the loss of hundreds of innocent lives was appalling but the involvement of Islamist networks was worrisome indeed. Moscow, in contrast, expressed unambiguous support to the ‘friendly Uzbek government’ and added more criticism to Western NGOs that were […]
RUSSIA AND CENTRAL ASIAN SECURITY
Russia remains the key guarantor of security in Central Asia, despite often heard claims that the United States has assumed this position. However, Russia regards Central Asia as of far less priority than her relations with the United States, Europe, and China. By the end of the Soviet era, Central Asia was considered an economic […]
THE RUSSIAN ENERGY STRATEGY & ENERGY POLICY: PIPELINE DIPLOMACY OR MUTUAL DEPENDENCE?
The energy needs of the world are growing fast, and competition for energy is on the rise. Not only hydrocarbon (crude oil and natural gas) resources are at stake, but also the means of electricity production and indeed most other sources of energy. China and India may both need to double their oil requirements in […]
THE GREAT GAME IN INNER ASIA OVER TWO CENTURIES
Around 1800, three great powers faced each other in Inner Asia: Britain, Russia, and the Manchu empire. The West referred to the latter as China, given that China since the seventeenth century formed the economically most important part of the Manchu empire. The Manchus were in decline, but they remained sufficiently strong to control the […]
Hot och hotbilder 2004 (in Swedish)
I dessa dagar talar man ofta om hot och framförallt hotbilder. Det kan vara personliga hotbilder, till exempel riktade mot en viss minister. Eller det kan vara nationella hotbilder, riktade mot hela landet. Under det kalla kriget såg svenska myndigheter en tydlig hotbild i form av Sovjetunionen. Under tidigare århundraden upplevdes på samma sätt det […]
UZBEKISTAN & THE THREAT FROM ISLAMIC EXTREMISM
Can Islamic Extremists Overthrow The Karimov Government? That repression of the political opposition is a fact of daily life in Uzbekistan, together with a weak Soviet-style economy and falling living standards for substantial segments of the population has been shown in a number of surveys. Yet President Islam Karimov remains firmly in charge of the […]
THE PROSPECTS FOR INTERNAL UNREST IN TURKMENISTAN
Stalin’s Disneyland? The widely publicised attempt on Turkmenistani President Saparmurat Niyazov’s life on 25 November 2002, and the subsequent arrest in the capital Ashgabat of an exiled, leading opponent to the Niyazov regime, dispelled the notion that any rumours of attempted palace coups against the Turkmenistani government were exaggerated. Although the facts of the affair […]
ISLAMIC EXTREMISM AS A POLITICAL FORCE IN CENTRAL ASIA
Islam in Central Asia does not constitute a uniform religious, social, or political force. While all titular Central Asian ethnic groups, i.e., the nations that states were named after, eventually embraced Islam, the religion did not penetrate the traditional cultures and social systems of these groups to an equally encompassing extent. While sedentary groups generally […]
THE NEW FACE OF CHECHEN TERRORISM
Female Chechen suicide bombers have recently developed into a new and increasingly serious threat to Russia. Previous Chechen acts of violence were primarily aimed at military targets and took place in the Northern Caucasus, and did not aim to kill large numbers of Russian civilians. The attacks by female suicide bombers have reversed these patterns. While […]
AFGHANISTAN AND CENTRAL ASIAN SECURITY
A Great Game with New Rules Central Asia is no longer the contested territory in a great geopolitical game fought among great powers. Few borders are seriously contested, unlike the situation in the Middle East and the Indian Subcontinent. Despite regional problems involving the exploitation of water resources, inter-ethnic distrust, economic reform, and the development […]
THE PROSPECTS FOR GENOCIDE IN CHECHNYA AND EXTREMIST RETALIATION AGAINST THE WEST
The failure of the Chechen separatist movement has made it imperative to find a working policy for the volatile Russian North Caucasus. There is a risk of extremist retaliation against the West, which would mean that the present terrorist threat in Russia becomes a transnational threat. The paper describes the prospects for Russia in dealing […]
THE TATMADAW: BURMA’S ARMED FORCES AND PROSPECTS FOR THE FUTURE
Since 1988, Burma has expanded its military from what was in effect a mere counter-insurgency force to what is likely to become the largest military force in South-East Asia. Moreover, a rapid and thorough modernisation process has armed the battle-hardened army with modern weaponry. The air force and navy too have increased their capabilities. For […]
IN SEARCH OF THE OPIUM WARLORDS OF THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE: A REPORT FROM THE THAI-BURMESE BORDER
Opium and its modern derivative heroin have for long remained a serious threat against civilisation as we know it, both in the East and in the West. Today, a large share of the available heroin comes from the area known as the Golden Triangle, the vast borderlands between Thailand, Burma, and Laos… Get Full text in […]
VIKINGS AND SAMURAI: CULTURAL AND ECONOMIC SIMILARITIES BETWEEN THE JAPANESE AND THE SWEDES
The Japanese and the Swedes are more similar than most people would believe. There are indeed several underlying social and cultural factors, which are shared by both Japan and Sweden. This paper describes and analyses the most striking similarities, in order to create a framework that can assist in forecasting the future of Japan’s economy […]