An examination of the only complete Soviet KGB active measures campaign plan that has surfaced. Based on it, a number of conclusions can be drawn on what characterized Soviet active measures during the Cold War, and for this reason might still characterize contemporary Russian active measures. Get Full text in PDF
The 9/11 terrorist attacks shaped American politics for decades. In 2021, the Biden Administration’s timetable for withdrawal of military forces from Afghanistan was for domestic political reasons firmly tied to the 20th anniversary of 9/11. The problem was, nobody thought to remind President Joe Biden that the Taliban government also had a 20th anniversary to […]
Get Full text in PDF
This is the first book to scrutinize the root causes of problems today with Afghan reconstruction. It begins in 1880 with the coming to power of Emir Abdur Rahman and departure of an occupying British army. On the northern border, Russian forces were also poised. Determined to preserve Afghan independence, Abdur Rahman devised a nation-building […]
In 2015, the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) announced the establishment of its Khorasan Province, said to encompass “Afghanistan, Pakistan, and other nearby lands.” Soon after, ISIL proclaimed its Caucasus Province. However, the war in Syria and Iraq is going badly for ISIL. Losing ground in its heartland, ISIL fighters will have […]
When the Afghan Taliban leaders withdrew into Pakistan in late 2001, they had no intention of surrendering the struggle against the U.S.-led international coalition which had forced them out of Afghanistan. Yet, with a substantial international military presence firmly entrenched in Afghanistan, there was no way that the Taliban could regain power by conventional military […]
During the 1992-1997 civil war in Tajikistan, foreign volunteers from primarily Uzbekistan played a prominent role in the fighting on the side of the UTO. Subsequently forming the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), these volunteer jihadists continued fighting and formed a destabilizing factor in Tajikistan’s relationship with neighbouring countries. The IMU in time migrated into […]
Michael Fredholm (Stockholm University) analyzes the activities of Uzbek Islamic extremists and finds that, although their Islamic rhetoric has little theological content and is outweighed by their belief in the righteousness of their cause and that salvation can be assured by armed violence in the name of the religious duty of holy war (jihad), they […]
Afghanistan plays a pivotal role in Central Asia’s regional instability due to its weak central government, poor economy, and ethnically diverse population. Although Afghanistan contains important natural resources, the country still faces a number of problems, each of which has the potential to destroy the Afghan government after the pull-out of international military forces. Central […]
The contemporary jihadist often lives in the West, perhaps as a second-generation immigrant or convert, or in another fairly secular environment such as post-Soviet Central Asia. He likely knows little or no Arabic, and is not an Islamic scholar. For him, religion and ideology are primarily used as an after-the-fact justification and legitimization for violent […]
First study to properly treat a key regional grouping in Asia. Explores both security and energy issues across the region. Considers geopolitical obstacles to the SCO’s long-term viability. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) has developed into a key regional security group in Asia, its member states representing no less than “half of humanity”. Alarmists believe […]
A number of counterproductive policies have been attempted in Afghanistan. New policies are needed, and this paper describes proven methods of state-building in Afghanistan. Get Full text in PDF
Pakistan has been called the epicentre of terrorism. Since leaders from almost every Sunni Islamic extremist group worldwide, from the internationalist Al-Qaeda to the Afghanistan-centred Taliban, have been found on the Pakistani soil, there seems little reason to argue with the conclusion that Pakistan is indeed central to political violence and terrorism in the name of Sunni Islam. […]
The war effort in Afghanistan has focused on kinetic targeting. Since insurgent operations involve few fighters, the intelligence task became to identify and locate perpetrators. Modern network analysis was applied in support of targeting, but intelligence collection and analysis in support of day-to-day relations with Afghan communities have been insufficient to allow intelligence-driven operations to […]
Uzbek proponents of Islamic extremism have played an important role as foreign participants in the civil wars of Tajikistan and Afghanistan and the present conflict between Pakistani Taliban and security forces in the tribal areas of Pakistan. Their close links to international jihadist networks such as the Al-Qaida and, at times, considerable income from sources […]
1. Central Asia is beginning to see a genuine move away from barter deals towards commercial deals in accordance with market forces. 2. Contrary to much perceived wisdom, in Central Asia it is Gazprom, Russia’s natural gas export monopoly, that is leading the way in the movement towards market forces. 3. Central Asian natural gas […]
What Makes Central Asian Islam Central Asian? In March 2005, an Afghan deputy minister of the interior (who out of mercy will remain unnamed) was touring Europe. At one stop, he suddenly found himself faced with a question that obviously took him by surprise. How long, an innocent but assuredly well-meaning European asked, had Afghanistan […]
Islam in Central Asia does not constitute a uniform religious, social, or political force. While all titular Central Asian ethnic groups, i.e., the nations that states were named after, eventually embraced Islam, the religion did not penetrate the traditional cultures and social systems of these groups to an equal extent. While the sedentary groups generally […]
Russia remains the key guarantor of security in Central Asia, despite often heard claims that the United States has assumed this position. However, Russia regards Central Asia as of far less priority than her relations with the United States, Europe, and China. By the end of the Soviet era, Central Asia was considered an economic […]
Most history was always written from the perspective of great empires such as Rome, Persia, and China. For them, and their historians, the nomads of the Eurasian steppes were little more than savage troublemakers. Nomads of different tribes and lineages were also hard to distinguish from one another. Few imperial commentators went farther than merely […]
Around 1800, three great powers faced each other in Inner Asia: Britain, Russia, and the Manchu empire. The West referred to the latter as China, given that China since the seventeenth century formed the economically most important part of the Manchu empire. The Manchus were in decline, but they remained sufficiently strong to control the […]
I dessa dagar talar man ofta om hot och framförallt hotbilder. Det kan vara personliga hotbilder, till exempel riktade mot en viss minister. Eller det kan vara nationella hotbilder, riktade mot hela landet. Under det kalla kriget såg svenska myndigheter en tydlig hotbild i form av Sovjetunionen. Under tidigare århundraden upplevdes på samma sätt det […]
Islam in Central Asia does not constitute a uniform religious, social, or political force. While all titular Central Asian ethnic groups, i.e., the nations that states were named after, eventually embraced Islam, the religion did not penetrate the traditional cultures and social systems of these groups to an equally encompassing extent. While sedentary groups generally […]
A Great Game with New Rules Central Asia is no longer the contested territory in a great geopolitical game fought among great powers. Few borders are seriously contested, unlike the situation in the Middle East and the Indian Subcontinent. Despite regional problems involving the exploitation of water resources, inter-ethnic distrust, economic reform, and the development […]
